Fryguy's BlogContents
What this calculator does
This is a personal retirement projection tool. It models how your savings grow from today through retirement and then estimates how long they'll last during the drawdown phase, year by year.
It accounts for:
- Multiple account types (IRA, 401k, Roth IRA, HSA, taxable brokerage)
- Social Security income for you and a spouse
- Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) starting at the correct SECURE 2.0 age
- Medicare/IRMAA cost estimates drawn from HSA funds
- Roth conversion windows (moving pre-tax money to Roth during lower-income years)
- Bear / Base / Bull drawdown scenarios at fixed return rates
- Inflation adjustment on your expenses
It does not replace a financial advisor. See the disclaimer at the bottom.
Getting started
Fill in the fields from top to bottom. The projection updates automatically as you type — no submit button needed.
- Enter your account balances at the top.
- Set your birthdate — the retirement date and Roth window auto-populate.
- Adjust annual expenses and expected return to match your plan.
- Add Social Security estimates if applicable.
- Review the Retirement Projection chart and Drawdown Projection table.
Current portfolio balances
Enter your current account balances — what they're worth today, not your contribution history.
| Field | What to enter |
|---|---|
| Traditional IRA | Balance in any rollover IRA or traditional IRA account |
| 401(k) / 403(b) | Your current employer plan balance (pre-tax) |
| Roth IRA | Roth IRA balance — contributions + growth, both tax-free at withdrawal |
| HSA | Health Savings Account balance. Calculator uses this for Medicare costs first before drawing from other accounts |
| Taxable Brokerage | After-tax investment accounts (not retirement-specific) |
The Total Portfolio shown below the fields is the sum of all five — this is the starting balance for your projections.
Retirement assumptions
| Field | What it means |
|---|---|
| Your birthdate | Used to calculate your current age, retirement age, RMD start year, and the Roth conversion window. The retirement date and Roth window auto-fill when you enter this. |
| Spouse birthdate | Used to calculate the spouse's SS claim year. Leave blank if no spouse or if spouse has no SS benefit. |
| Retirement date | The year you plan to retire. Auto-set to age 67 (full SS age) when you enter your birthdate. Adjust freely. |
| Annual expenses | Your estimated annual spending in retirement, in today's dollars. The calculator inflates this by 2.5%/year going forward. |
| Monthly contribution | How much you're adding to your portfolio each month between now and retirement. Set to $0 if you're already retired. |
| Expected return | Annual growth rate assumed for your portfolio during the accumulation phase (now → retirement). A common estimate is 6–8% for a diversified portfolio. Use the Bear / Normal / Bull buttons as a shortcut. |
| Volatility | Standard deviation of annual returns. Used in Monte Carlo scenarios if enabled. Typical stock/bond mixes range from 8–15%. |
Additional annual investments
Expand "Include additional annual investments" to model a lump-sum contribution made every year — for example, a bonus, inheritance, or side income you plan to invest.
| Field | Notes |
|---|---|
| Annual amount | How much extra you invest each year, on top of your monthly contribution. |
| Stop year | The last year you expect to make this extra contribution. After this year, only the monthly contribution applies. |
Set the amount to $0 (or leave the section collapsed) if this doesn't apply to you.
Roth Conversion Planner
A Roth conversion moves money from a pre-tax account (Traditional IRA or 401k) to a Roth IRA. You pay income tax now, but all future growth is tax-free and no RMDs are required on Roth accounts.
The optimal window is usually between retirement and age 73–75 (when RMDs kick in), when your income is lower and you can fill lower tax brackets cheaply.
| Field | Notes |
|---|---|
| Convert from year | Auto-set to your retirement year. This is typically the first year your income drops significantly. |
| Convert through year | Auto-set to the year before your RMD start age (73 or 75 per SECURE 2.0 based on your birth year). After RMDs start, those forced withdrawals complicate conversions. |
| Other income in window | Any non-SS, non-portfolio income during this period — part-time work, rental income, pension, etc. This affects what tax bracket you're in. |
| Target bracket | The top federal tax bracket you're willing to fill with converted income. Common choices are 12% or 22%. The planner estimates how much you can convert each year without exceeding this bracket. |
Drawdown Projection
The drawdown table shows year-by-year account balances from retirement until age 95, modeled under three fixed-rate scenarios:
These are fixed absolute return rates during retirement — independent of your accumulation-phase Expected Return. You can also set a Custom % using the slider.
RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions)
The IRS requires you to withdraw a minimum amount from pre-tax accounts (IRA + 401k) each year starting at a set age:
- Born 1960 or later → RMDs start at age 75
- Born 1951–1959 → RMDs start at age 73
- Born 1950 or earlier → RMDs start at age 72
RMDs are calculated using the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. Roth IRA and HSA accounts are exempt from RMDs during your lifetime.
Draw order
The calculator depletes accounts in this order to maximize tax efficiency:
- Traditional IRA
- 401(k) / 403(b)
- Roth IRA (preserved longest — grows tax-free)
HSA funds are reserved for Medicare/IRMAA costs and drawn first for that purpose.
Medicare & IRMAA
The calculator estimates Medicare Part B premiums starting at age 65, growing at 5%/year. If your income (MAGI) exceeds certain thresholds, IRMAA surcharges apply — the table includes a rough IRMAA estimate based on your pre-tax draws plus 85% of SS income.
Reading the results
Retirement Projection chart
The main chart shows your projected portfolio value from today through retirement, under Bear / Base / Bull expected return assumptions. The shaded area between Bear and Bull represents the range of outcomes.
- The green/blue line is the Base scenario — your most likely path.
- The red line (Bear) shows a conservative outcome.
- The top line (Bull) shows an optimistic outcome.
Projected balance at retirement
The three numbers below the chart show your estimated portfolio value on your retirement date under each scenario. This becomes the starting balance for the drawdown table.
Drawdown table columns
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Year / Age | Calendar year and your age at that point |
| IRA / 401k / Roth / HSA | Balance in each account at year-end |
| SS Income | Total SS (yours + spouse) received that year |
| RMD | Required Minimum Distribution from pre-tax accounts |
| Expenses | Inflation-adjusted spending for that year |
| Net draw | Expenses minus SS income — what comes from your portfolio |
| Total balance | Sum of all accounts at year-end |
Privacy & data storage
All data is stored locally in your browser using localStorage. Nothing is sent to any server. Your financial information never leaves your device.
- Data persists across browser sessions on the same device and browser.
- Clearing your browser's site data or using a private/incognito window will not retain values.
- The Reset button clears all saved data and resets all fields to defaults.
This calculator is provided for educational and illustrative purposes only. It is not financial, tax, or investment advice. The projections shown are estimates based on the inputs you provide and simplified mathematical models — they are not guarantees of future performance.
Actual returns, tax laws, Social Security rules, Medicare costs, and inflation rates will differ from the assumptions used here. Tax laws (including RMD ages, brackets, and Roth rules) are subject to change by Congress. This tool does not account for individual tax situations, state taxes, estate planning, healthcare costs beyond Medicare, or other personal financial factors.
Consult a licensed financial advisor, CPA, or retirement planner before making major financial decisions. Social Security estimates should be verified at ssa.gov.
Social Security
Expand "Include Social Security" to add SS income. This reduces the amount you need to draw from savings each year.
The Social Security estimator panel below the inputs shows a quick breakeven analysis between claim ages.